| Company Name | Company Description | Reported Impact | Turnover Amount (£) | Turnover Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hamble Aerostructures Limited | Advanced aerostructures | Expects an increase in product demand from geopolitical challenges | 90.7M | 16 |
| Sonardyne International Limited | Underwater navigation, positioning, and communication systems | Ukraine war increased interest in company products | 67.9M | 39 |
| Surface Technology International Limited | PCB assembly and electronic manufacturing | Ukraine war may result in additional business | 51.1M | 27 |
| Axis Electronics Limited | Electronic components | Expects NATO to spend on projects involving the company | 41.7M | 100 |
| SAAB UK LTD | Defence and security technologies | World events created unprecedented demand for defence capabilities | 40.8M | 29 |
| Supacat Limited | Off-road vehicles | Provides vehicles to MoD and also re-rolling vehicles for the Ukraine conflict | 38M | 181 |
| Callen-Lenz Associates Limited | Uncrewed aerial systems (UAS) | Geopolitical situation making UAS central to defence procurement | 37.1M | 332 |
| Satcom Global Limited | Satellite communications services | Global conflict may increase demand for satellite services | 35.2M | 3 |
| L Jackson & Co Limited | Ex-military equipment | Global insecurity is the primary reason for strong sales | 33.2M | 210 |
| Micross UK Solutions Limited | Microelectronics | Ideally placed to support defence customers through asset modernisation | 32.6M | 25 |
| Alcon Components Limited | Specialist automotive components | Ukraine war led to demand uptick | 23.3M | 28 |
| Oxley Group Limited | Lighting and electro-optic systems | Increased sales from increased global defence budgets | 20.7M | 11 |
| Allan Webb Ltd | Supportability services and documentation | Significant opportunities in the defence market | 19.5M | 1 |
| Marine Specialised Technology Limited | Rigid inflatables and high-speed workboats | Substantial turnover increases expected in next 3 years | 19.3M | 31 |
| CHT UK Bridgwater Ltd | Speciality silicone compounds | Upturn expected in the sector due to global conflict | 18.7M | -1 |
| E-PPL Holdings Limited | Vehicle launch and rework | Significant growth opportunity from increased defence spending by European and International governments | 16.6M | -59 |
| Mabway Limited | Training | Significant contract recently won with British army | 16.5M | 9 |
| Nasmyth Bulwell Limited | Precision aerospace components and assemblies | Defence is a key growth sector for the company | 16.5M | -15 |
| AirBorn International Ltd | Connectors and electronic components | Expected demand increase for certain products due to Ukraine war | 13.4M | 55 |
| Merlin PCB Group Limited | Printed Circuit Board (PCB) manufacturing | Elevated demand for defence products will benefit the group | 12.3M | 24 |
| Salt Separation Services Limited | Reverse osmosis water treatment systems | Geopolitical situation provides opportunities in defence sector | 10.9M | 3 |
| Melius Holdings Limited | Instrumentation design and manufacturing | Very strong demand building in defence | 10.9M | -15 |
| Spectrum Technologies Limited | Specialised industrial laser systems | Ukraine war increased demand for fuel efficient aircraft | 10.2M | 48 |
| Ubisecure Holdings Limited | Identity services | Ukraine war positively impacted digital identity and cybersecurity space | 8.7M | 25 |
| Currock Engineering Company Limited | Precision engineering | Ukraine and Gaza leading to increased defence spending that company depends on | 5.8M | -24 |
| Amplicon Group Limited | Industrial personal computers (PCs) | Ukraine war increased opportunities | 218k | -13 |
The findings in this post are part of an ongoing project to develop a methodology for extracting climate and geopolitical risk—as well as other critical data points—from vast amounts of unstructured data, such as company filings. This work is part of a broader research initiative to uncover signals in corporate disclosures that can inform research, policy, and strategy. Over the coming months, we will be publishing further results from this stream. We are also developing these methodologies into a service. For inquiries, contact us at: adu@autonomy.work
Reflecting upon the risks to business posed by the war in Ukraine, a Hampshire-based supplier of electronics to the defence sector, conceded in their latest annual report that sadly the conflict may result in additional business. When considering which companies see rising demand in wartime, military technology providers are perhaps the first that spring to mind. Yet as the impacts of conflict spread throughout the economy, some more unexpected areas of growth begin to emerge.
The energy crisis triggered by war in Europe pushed British consumers to find new ways of reducing their energy bills. Lifehacks like drying clothes with a dehumidifier instead of a tumble dryer, gained more traction amongst consumers than they ever had in peacetime. Even device manufacturers were caught off-guard. Meaco, the UK’s leading supplier of dehumidifiers, notes in their latest annual report that, surprisingly, high energy prices resulted in increased sales. Other consumer trends mentioned in last year’s corporate filings associated with the economic conditions of ongoing wars included a surge in staycations, a very strong used-car market, accelerated buying of Palestinian goods and increased wood burning.
We may recognize disparate trends like these through direct experience, peripheral awareness or common sense. Yet, encountering this phenomena through the stark, no-frills prose of an annual report offers a different kind of signal. One filtered through the dispassionate logic of financial materiality. When the impacts of war appear in these documents, it appears as a force shaping balance sheets. Its inclusion is usually there to justify financial shortcomings, and in rare instances financial gain. In this way, annual reports, taken in aggregate, offer a unique yet constrained lens on to the world.
To illustrate the ways in which geopolitical crisis are shifting the landscape for UK businesses, the following study presents a selection of British companies reporting increased demand, and in some cases, commercial gain, directly linked to the economic conditions of ongoing conflict. This research is drawn from the narrative data embedded wthin annual reports electronically submitted to Companies House throughout 2024 by 3,168,750 companies. This cohort represents the majority of UK-registered companies, though it excludes most of the largest firms, which still file their accounts in paper format.
Medicine
More pharmacies opened in Ukraine throughout 2024 than any other type of store. Data provided by the Retail Association of Ukraine shows that pharmacies are the most common store type, making up 36% of the 22,073 retail premises tracked by the organisation. Food retail makes up 21% of trade for comparison. This growth in pharmaceutical retail amid war creates opportunities to exploit a supply chain historically vulnerable to corruption.
In 2014, government auditors estimated that Ukrainians were overpaying for medicines by up to 40%, largely due to a procurement system dominated by a few oligarchic intermediaries who sourced cheap drugs through offshore shell companies and sold them at inflated prices. Ukraine’s Ministry of Health attempted to reform the system by employing international agencies such as the British development organisation Crown Agents alongside UNICEF and the UN Development Programme. Despite this attempt at reform saving the Ministry of Health tens of millions of dollars, it is still possible to find offshore intermediaries selling medicine into Ukraine with connections to the old system.
Mili Healthcare is a UK-registered company that operates solely in Ukraine, supplying hospitals and retail pharmacies with drugs, ranging from cold medicines to cancer treatments. From 2016-2019, the company was led by Borys Lytovsky, a businessman active in the pharmaceuticals sector since the 90s. Though largely unknown outside Ukrainian and Russian media, investigative journalists from the Ukrainian anti-corruption project Nashi Groshi (Our Money) have called Lytovsky the most underestimated pharmaceutical oligarch.
Nashi Groshi alleges Lytovsky’s involvement in Ministry of Health procurement schemes as far back as the early 2010s. In 2014, the outlet wrote of his connections to the Farmex Group that hiked the price of vaccines by 60% over the course of a year. As recently as 2020, journalists have connected Lytovsky to Norton-Ukraine LLC, which sold coronavirus testing machines to hospitals at inflated prices. A number of scientists who used the machines found them to be ineffective.
In 2015, before Lytovsky became director of Mili Healthcare, international organizations supporting Ukraine’s pharmaceutical procurement reforms purchased oncology drugs from the company. When the list of purchased medicines was made public, concerns about the quality of Mili Healthcare’s drugs surfaced on social media, drawing criticism from prominent figures, including a well-known charity leader and investigative journalist. At the same time, some argued that these concerns were orchestrated through a covert campaign by the pharmaceutical oligarchy to undermine public confidence in the reforms and discredit the role of international agencies. Regardless of the controversy, Lytovsky’s appointment as director of Mili Healthcare in 2016 is notable for how closely it followed the company’s emergence as a supplier within the reformed system.
In 2019 Lytovsky ceded control of Mili Healthcare to Olga Lytovska, the current director of the company. According to Companies House filings she is, like Lytovsky, a Ukrainian national based in Monaco. Furthermore, according to investigative journalists from Bihus, Olga Lytovska is the name of Borys Lytovsky’s wife.
Mili Healthcare recently won Ministry of Health tenders to deliver oncology drugs from 2024-2025 for around $7 million. The company occupies 0.4% of the market and grew its sales by 28% in 2023. Whilst British companies have previously attempted to aid Ukraine in reforming its procurement system, it is unclear to what extent the UK’s own corporate registry has and perhaps continues to facilitate some of this graft.
Defence
Global military expenditure has reached a record $2.4 trillion, with Europe experiencing its sharpest increase in three decades. Against this backdrop, it’s no surprise that many suppliers to the UK’s armed forces anticipate rapid growth in demand, with some already reporting strong order books and increased turnover.
Large defence contractors are the main beneficiaries of rising military spending, relying on governments as their primary clients. SAAB UK, a subsidiary of the Swedish defence firm SAAB AB, describes its relationship with the Ministry of Defence (MoD) and the Department for Business & Trade as very close. This close proximity allows them to better anticipate government needs and navigate changes such as those that may follow the upcoming Defence Spending Review. SAAB’s newly opened advanced manufacturing site in Hampshire was inaugurated earlier this month by the Secretary of State for Business and Trade.
Rising demand for UK defence products is being driven not only by domestic needs but also through increased European investment. Merlin PCB Group, the UK’s largest printed circuit board (PCB) manufacturer, reports record-high order volumes, supplying electronics to replenish EU and NATO stockpiles while also supporting Ukraine. Elsewhere, Marine Specialised Technology, a manufacturer of rigid hulled inflatable mission boats, has secured significant orders through NATO contracts, including a landmark deal with the German Navy under its F126 Frigate Programme; the largest procurement in the navy’s history.
The transformation of recent conflicts through drone warfare and AI is stimulating product development in the UK across legacy players and smaller SMEs. Over the past year, SAAB has focussed its UK operations towards autonomous systems, acquiring a start-up specializing in AI-driven drone swarms and relocating production of its underwater robotics portfolio to the UK. Meanwhile, Callen-Lenz, a company developing in-house uncrewed aerial systems (UAS) that counts former Thales CEO Victor Chavez as a non-executive director, quadrupled its turnover. Notably, 97% of its turnover was generated in the UK, where it supports the Ministry of Defence (MoD) across R&D and UAS supply. Callen-Lenz observe that the current geopolitical situation has accelerated uncrewed air systems to become a central pillar of Defence Procurement, giving the company what appears to be its most exceptional year of growth across 15 years of operation.
Many companies driving the defence sector’s growth develop dual-use technologies, serving both military and civilian markets. Such firms balance defence contracts with projects in other highly regulated industries such as marine science, aerospace and energy. These domains require extreme reliability in some of the world’s most hostile environments. Salt Separation Services, for instance, supplies reverse osmosis plants that provide drinking water to Royal Navy submarine crews submerged for months, as well as to scientists stationed at Antarctica’s remote Rothera Research Station. Likewise, Alcon Components’ bespoke braking systems are deployed in Supacat Jackal vehicles, a number of which are reportedly in use on Ukrainian battlefields, while also servicing Aston Martin hypercars competing in prestigious 24-hour endurance races in Le Mans.
One of the key challenges of assembling highly sophisticated and expensive equipment in close proximity is ensuring its effective operation, maintenance and long-term viability. This places emphasis on training, military simulation, engineering education and technical documentation with providers such as Allan Webb reporting increased opportunities and Mabway securing recent contracts with the British Army.
While investments in new hardware and training are essential for long-term military readiness, they must be balanced against the immediate demands of ongoing operations. With wars raging on multiple continents and new hardware taking years to develop, existing military equipment has been highly sought after. As a result, portions of defence budgets are being directed toward extending the lifespan of aging assets. The MoD recently funded vehicle manufacturer Supacat to repurpose a number of its High Mobility Transporter (HMT) off-road vehicles for use in Ukraine.
It is striking that amongst all companies reporting financial uplift from ongoing conflict, the UK’s largest supplier of ex-military hardware, L Jackson & Co, saw one of the steepest relative increases in turnover. The company, based at The Rocket Site in Doncaster (an old missile testing facility) reported its highest-ever sales growth, with turnover tripling to £33 million last year. The majority of its £18.4 million in revenue was generated domestically, but European sales reached £11.2 million, surpassing the company’s total global turnover from the previous year. L Jackson & Co attributes its record sales growth primarily to ongoing global insecurity. Data from Import Genius suggests the company has recently shipped a number of vehicles to Ukraine.
L Jackson & Co may export its equipment, that is largely if not solely derived from the MoD, to any foreign army for whom the UK government grants an export licence. Failure to comply with these regulations has led to legal trouble in the past. In 2009, the company’s owner was jailed for bypassing government restrictions and selling former military equipment to Sudan. Despite strong performance in 2023, the company has cautioned that procurement opportunities have declined over the past 12 to 18 months, suggesting that high demand may be catching up with the market for ex-military equipment.
Energy
Wholesale electricity and gas prices rocketed as the war in Ukraine stoked supply fears. These cost increases were largely passed on to households as oil and gas majors reported record earnings. ExxonMobil, North America’s largest producer, posted the highest profit in its 152-year history. This marked yet another extraordinary year in a series of extraordinary years for the energy sector, following the whiplash of lockdowns and economic recovery. The impacts of high prices extended across the broader industry, lifting companies throughout the supply chain.
Smaller independent businesses distributing oil products from major suppliers like ExxonMobil also reported increased turnover as a result of the oil price. Companies including Country Oil Group, Kinch Fuel Oils, and Estuary Oils operate fleets of fuel trucks that serve a diverse customer base, including commercial, agricultural and domestic sectors. 5% of British households, primarily in rural areas, still rely on oil for heating, making these distributors essential. Many of those living in oil heated homes may join oil clubs to secure lower prices by purchasing in bulk for their village or collective. These buying groups may closely watch geopolitical developments to time their purchases strategically.
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Beyond responding to the immediate shock of high energy prices, the conflict refocused attention on long-term energy security, making it an urgent strategic priority. European countries began the painful process of reducing their reliance on Russian oil and gas, thereby minimizing their exposure to future supply disruptions and sanctions. This shift naturally opened up opportunities for those in the business of constructing and maintaining critical energy infrastructure. LFF (Scotland), an Aberdeen-based manufacturer of pipes, fittings, and flanges, exceeded expectations, reporting a substantial increase in turnover—rising to £54 million from £34 million, partially as a result of energy security concerns. Similarly the offshore engineering consultancy London Marine Group, anticipated growing demand for projects that reduced reliance on Russian oil and gas, from offshore windfarms to the construction of liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminals. However, recent events have reinforced the fact that energy security extends beyond shielding consumers from price volatility and reducing reliance on geopolitical adversaries.
Covert attacks on energy infrastructure are becoming more frequent and environmentally devastating. Covelya Group, a consortium of companies specializing in bespoke sensor systems and software across defence and engineering, reported a record-high number of orders, with turnover jumping from £70.4 million to £101 million. They primarily attribute their growth in the oil and gas sector to the shift away from Russian energy but observed a significant transition in demand from oil and gas exploration technologies to those focused more on inspection, repair, and monitoring. While this trend may be partly attributed to declining exploration in regions with depleted reserves like the North Sea, it also raises questions about the extent to which geopolitical concerns are driving increased investment in these technologies, particularly among companies operating at the intersection of energy and defence.
Protecting critical energy infrastructure from coordinated attacks also requires getting the basics right. High-performance security doors and locking systems will need to withstand everything from gunshots and explosions to fires. Such systems are likely necessary across a wide range of locations, including power plants, natural gas processing plants, LNG terminals, oil refineries, offshore oil and gas platforms and energy storage facilities. These measures may also be required to protect the many smaller, often unmanned remote sites across wider energy distribution networks. Surelock McGill, a provider of advanced locking systems, reported increased demand and revenue last year as customers across all its core markets attempt to secure themselves against terrorism and similar threats.
Broader energy security concerns have led some to invest in renewable infrastructure for greater energy independence. Harris & Bailey, one of the UK’s largest building material suppliers, described the energy crisis as an event that fundamentally undermined their confidence in future pricing and supply. This prompted them to install 500 solar panels on their warehouse in Croydon, generating up to 198kW per hour at peak output. On sunny days, the company produces excess energy, which is fed back into the grid under a favourable export tariff with E.On Energy, providing additional passive income. During the energy crisis, those generating renewable energy, such as solar, and selling it on the market benefited from higher electricity prices, boosting their turnover.
The shift toward energy security has also driven demand for the critical metals essential for developing the batteries that support renewable energy technologies. Revert Alloys and Metals, a company specializing in recycling nickel, cobalt, and complex superalloys, sees the conflict in Ukraine further amplifying an already exceptionally strong forecasted demand for these critical metals.
The severity of energy security concerns in the UK pale in comparison to those experienced in Ukraine, where relentless attacks on infrastructure heightened the need for portable backup power as winter set in. In Germany, the government urged citizens to purchase generators in anticipation of potential power shortages as Russia threatened to cut off its energy supplies to the country. This urgent requirement for back-up power was met by businesses across Europe, including UK-based Bimson Power; the exclusive European distributor of Champion power generators. By servicing this brief spike in demand, the company doubled its sales between August 2022 and January 2023.
Mobility
UK net migration hit record levels in recent years, driven in part by government schemes for displaced populations from Hong Kong and Ukraine. This increased the need for a range of essential support functions to welcome newcomers and help them to integrate. A number of organisations providing language and education services reported significant increases in participation.
Community centres and religious groups offering free English language courses have seen increased uptake from recent Ukrainian arrivals. As community-led initiatives, these organizations often offer a broader range of support services beyond language instruction, including assistance with paperwork and skills training in employability, first aid, and basic IT. Such spaces can serve as a bridge for newcomers, helping them to foster social connections before attempting to find work in the UK.
Increased participation in education also drives demand for testing and qualification services. A commercial entity that provides language tests and qualification recognition for UK visa applicants, reported a 50% year-on-year increase in turnover to £38.3 million, fuelled by rising transaction volumes partially due to displaced people from Hong Kong and Ukraine. However, any optimism surrounding these results was likely short-lived. It was recently revealed that the company had amassed £13 million in profits over the years while operating government visa services under a not-for-profit contract. The company has since repaid these unlawful gains back into the government language test service and a number of executives resigned.
Ukrainian translation and interpretation skills have also been highly sought after, particularly within the MoD. Worldwide Language Resources, the government’s preferred linguistic service provider, saw revenue nearly triple to £31.1 million in 2023. This significant boost in revenue is likely due to the company’s involvement in recruiting a large number of linguists to assist the British Army train Ukrainian soldiers in the UK.
Whilst conflict can open up special routes between countries, it more often disrupts and destroys existing mobility channels. Following the October 7th attack on Israel, international airlines suspended flights due to security concerns, leaving national airline El Al as one of the few still operating. To meet the reported shortages in medical and military supplies, the airline swiftly retrofitted several Boeing passenger planes as exclusive cargo carriers.
British cargo provider Airbridge International Agencies, which worked with El Al, reported increased revenue margins tied to the processing of this increase in cargo being transported by the airline. Some of the transported supplies were donated by charities with El Al claiming to have delivered first aid kits, medical supplies, thermal clothing for soldiers and equipment purchased for families near Gaza.